From Bearded Tesla Guy.
Just this week Tesla revealed that the very first production Cybertruck rolled off the line. In a month that has been filled with Cybertruck sightings, it is little surprise that production has begun on the Cybertruck in Tesla’s new Giga Texas facility.
What is surprising however is that the Tesla Cybertruck is not going to deliver on the expected performance at launch. For 4 years now headlines have been filled with talk about the highly celebrated 500+ mile range Cybertruck. This top trim was anticipated to come in at $69,900, go 0-60 in 2.9 seconds, tow up to 14k lbs and have more than 500 miles of range. One thing that was not made clear during the announcement is that in order to achieve 500+ miles of range, Tesla would have to first achieve its goals with energy density in the 4680 battery cells.
2 years ago during Battery Day, Tesla announced the new 4680 battery form factor to the world. This new battery was to bring in a new era of battery technology that would reduce dependence on harsh minerals. In addition, these new batteries would deliver superior energy density, cost less, improve manufacturing flow, and become the new platform for all Tesla vehicles.
Unfortunately things have not progressed nearly as fast as anyone at Tesla would have liked. 4 years later, the 4680 battery cell is still nowhere near where it needs to be in order to deliver on Tesla’s goals. In fact, when you look at the 4680 battery cell vs the current 2170 battery cell, you will find that it is actually less energy dense.
The battery pack in the Model Y AWD is made up of these new 4680 battery cells. Using this as a baseline, we can compare that to the 2170 battery performance in the Model Y LR AWD. It turns out that the 4680 batteries only provided 2% weight reduction and surprisingly also provided 12.8% less energy density.
While these 4680 cells will eventually perform at levels promised, the timeline for achieving this has become very obscure. Even the recently launched Tesla Semi, which requires about 850 kWh battery pack was supposed to use 4680 cells, but ultimately had to resort to 2170.
So until Tesla is able to achieve performance required from the 4680 cells, we will not be seeing the 500 mile Cybertruck. In fact, it could be a couple years before the highly anticipated long range Cybertruck makes its way to market.
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