Tesla Model Y & Model 3 – Waiting May Pay Off BIG!!

/ May 31, 2024

From Bearded Tesla Guy.

The Tesla Model Y and Model 3 continue to be the largest volume vehicles at Tesla. Following a quarter of much lower demand than usual, and looking at inventory levels sitting at new highs, it begs the question, is now the right time to buy?

At the end of Q1 in March of this year, Tesla ended the quarter with deals on Tesla Model Y in the $5,000 off range, $1k incentive for Cybertruck order holders, referral bonuses, free supercharging, FSD transfer, and free FSD trials. This on top of already lowered prices, it seemed that Tesla was offering everything they could to help push demand into the end of the quarter. Although these offers did help for sure, it was not enough to sell as many vehicles as they made.

This quarter is looking better than Q1, but it is still new territory for Tesla. Traditionally by the end of the quarter, almost all inventory is sold. However, after March, there was a ton of inventory on site at Service Centers around the country. Looking at inventory at my local Service Center today, you can clearly see a large volume of inventory on hand. The overall lot does seem to be slightly lower in inventory than in March, so there are signs things are improving.

But with that, Tesla changed pricing, updated the Model Y RWD to a Long Range version, removed all inventory discounts on new vehicles, even Demo models in inventory discounts are a few hundred dollars instead of thousands. In this same time, input costs have not increased on these vehicles, so it’s hard to understand why prices are so high.

Although the Tesla Model Y LR AWD has actually gone down $1k over last quarter, it’s actually more expensive, by several thousand dollars, and that is because Tesla removed their inventory discounts. Instead, Tesla has been offering interest rate incentives and lease specials in its stead. This is likely significantly cheaper than the thousands of dollars in markdowns we have grown accustomed to.

The real question is what happens next as we close out the last 30 days of the quarter and 1st half of 2024? With really strong interest rate offers, Tesla has been able to bring monthly payments down for consumers, but for cash buyers, these incentives hardly move the needle. With so much inventory on hand, will Tesla also bring back some inventory discounts?

I think it is likely but not guaranteed that we will see some combination of inventory discounts and other incentives to take delivery by the end of the quarter. Things like FSD trial, discounts for referrals, upgrades for free like paint or interior color, etc. Because of this, I still think there are better deals to be had, and until the Model 3 becomes Tax Credit eligible, I think the issues Tesla faces today will continue.

Once the Refresh Model 3 becomes tax credit eligible, I think we will finally see demand return for the Model 3. Until the Model 3 is significantly less than the Model Y, I just dont see how they move large volumes of the affordable sedan.

Inventory tracking source: https://tesla-info.com

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